Like yesterday's ALDS quick view and predictions, I'm back today for the NLDS. One series starts today (Cards/Pads) and one tomorrow (Dodgers/Metropolitans). Here's the former and later we'll visit the latter.
Padres vs. Cardinals
A year or 2 ago, this matchup would have been a lot different. But this is 2006, and the Padres have home field advantage against the Central Division champs who stumbled and bumbled their way to a playoff berth only because the Astros could not continue their torrid September to the end. But the interesting part here is that maybe the Cardinals need to be the underdog. What have they done as the favorite? Sure, they made the World Series in 2004 versus the Red Sox, but they never had enough of anything- pitching, hitting, fielding- in that series. And they still don't. Chris Carpenter is a 1-man show when the Cards really need 3 Carpenters. The Padres will counter with aces Jake Peavy and Chris Young back-to-back and follow it up with playoff veteran David Wells (pending his latest aches and pains). Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver are not the answer in games 2 and 3.
Matchup to watch
This series will come down to execution. The Cardinals have the big bats that can turn games in a single inning. Led by Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, it seems like the Cards are always a HR away from turning the tide. But the Padres have youth and a deeper lineup top to bottom. The question is can they overcome the jitters and play the way they've played all season? Or do the vets from St. Louis prove their poise is the solution? I think the Padres, while young, have enough veteran calm in the dugout, like Piazza and Wells, mixed in to turn away any Cardinals rally in the late innings.
My Pick: Padres in 4. Trevor Hoffman (this year's NL Cy Young winner?) is a much more solid closer than the Card's Braden Looper who's filling in for an inconsistent and injured Jason Isringhausen. You've got to ask yourself, if Looper was the guy why did St. Louis stick it out with "Tater Ball" Izzy for so long this year?
10.03.2006
NFL Week 4 Wrap-up Revisited
So I had to get a comment in about the MNF game and it ties up my weekend NFL summary nicely, puts me at 10-4 for the second straight week, and leads me into the latest (and greatest) issue surrounding the NFL.
So, Brett Favre did what Brett Favre does best at this stage of his career. He throws the ball downfield with wild abandon and doesn’t care who catches the ball, even if it's the other team. His second interception of the night (versus 0 TDs) was the prime example. Favre motioned to his right- the primary receiver in the play. Seeing it covered, he checked down to his left on a swing pass to his RB. It was open for the safe play, would have gained 5 yards due to blockers being there, but instead, the ageless one decided to check down the field and saw what he thought was a wide open receiver down the middle.
Unfortunately, the Eagles were baiting Favre, sat on the route, and picked off an off-balance throw that was about 5 yards short of the wideout anyway. I mean, it wasn't even close- like the DB Lewis needed to make a instinctive reactionary grab for the ball. He literally just sat and waited.
But this should surprise no one. It is what Brett Favre does. Sure he had 2 straight games with 340 yards and 3 TDs apiece. But as I said in my Week 4 predictions, wait until Favre plays a good team. I don't even mean a great team. And the Eagles are somewhere in between good and great for this season (final opinion withheld until the season ends).
I am sure it does not help that the opposing coach is Andy Reid who knows Favre as well as anyone- Reid being one of the dozen or so coaches who's genesis was the championship Packers coaching staff of the early and mid-90's that also produced guys like Mariucci, Gruden, and last year's NFC champion coach, Mike Holmgren.
But that aside, Favre is now his own biggest obstacle (as well as the Packers). He cannot get out of his own way on the field... or rather his own poor decision-making. How many more interceptions will it take to accept this as fact? It's over. Let the end of the game last night signify the beginning of the Aaron Rodgers era. Use the hit towards the end of the game as the excuse if you want, so it does not look like he is bowing out, but rather to put an end to his record games started streak as a medical precaution. Call it "lingering symptoms of post-concussive syndrome" or whatever you want. Just do Brett and the team a favor. The Packers should call the best audible of Favre's career for him at a time when this team needs it most.
10.02.2006
MLB- Let the Playoffs Commence.
So here it is, October, the month of baseball madness. 162 games have boiled it down to 8 teams. If you're a betting man or woman, take a Wild Card team as your World Series winner. But if you're like me, well, good luck with those hair patches after pulling your hair out trying to decide on a deserving World Series prediction. So let's get to the Wild Card round predictions- I still have some hair left to pull out before offering up my LCS and WS picks. Today, the ALDS.
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Is that sound you hear Jimmy Leyland screaming into a pillow at the fact his team: a) spit the bit down the stretch and lost the divisional title b) gave up HFA in the ALDS c) now has to play the hottest team in baseball or d) all of the above?
While it's true the Tigers did not do themselves any favors giving up the A's for the Yanks, the fact of the matter is the Tigers MADE THE PLAYOFFS. Take the gate revenue from the extra game(s) and run! But this team has a chance. First, they are the AL Wild Card, and if they can pull a 2004 Red Sox or a 2002 Angels, they'll be fine.
Matchup to Watch
This whole series comes down to pitching. While the Yankees on paper have a distinct advantage in the batting order now that Sheffield and Matsui are healthy to compliment, Jeter, Cano, Damon, and Giambi, they can't pitch their team to wins like the Tigers. The Tigers starters (and team overall) boasted the best team ERA in MLB, which helped TIGERS' starters post the most wins of any rotation (1 ahead of the Yankees) and is complimented by the 6th best batting average against in all of MLB (2nd best in the AL). Here's the matchups:
Starters
Game 1: Robertson vs. Wang
Game 2: Verlander vs. Mussina
Game 3: Rogers vs. Johnson
The fact that the Tigers worst starter of its top 3 is pitching the 1st game against, arguably, the Yankees best pitcher this year, may decide this whole series. If the Tigers steal Game 1, an inconsistent Mussina and an aged, aching Johnson give the Tigers potential for a sweep, let alone taking this series while in Detroit in Game 4 (if necessary).
My Pick: Yankees in 4. Detroit's 1st foray into the post season after such a long layoff just doesn't bode well for Leyland & Co. If they come back to make the post season again next year, I may change my mind.
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland A's
One thing can be said about all 4 teams in the ALDS, there is no shortage of pitching. The Yanks and Tigers may be good for the AARP (Johnson/Mussina) versus Cub Scouts (Verlander/Bonderman), but I'll stake my money on this series being the best pitching matchup in any of the 4 LDS matchups. IMAGINE what this would be like if Francisco Liriano could pitch? Instead, we're treated to #1 vs. #1 in Johan vs. Zito, and Bonzer vs. Loiaza, 2 guys who have been overlooked in the second half of the season as anchors to rotations that didn't have much after the #1's for a good strech post All-Star break. In the end though, the best pitching will come routinely after the 6th or 7th inning when both bullpens step in.
Matchup to watch
The closers. Which young closer shows he's got the stuff to be the next Mariano? The Twins' Joe Nathan has really be groomed for this spot in his career, while Huston Street of the A's is still that filthy raw and careless flame thrower who makes batters step back in the batter's box and extra 1/2 step. So which has more pressure? I say Nathan- he's been a top closer longer, his team has been to the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, but he's only 0-1 with 1 save and a 9.00 ERA, pitching 5 innings in relief for the Twins. Meanwhile, Huston Street hasn't been to the post-season and, in fact, is only in his second season, AND he's only 23 years old! Closing out the 9th inning, when the game is on the line in a deciding Game 5 is a lot to ask a 23 year old kid. Because of this, I say...
My Pick: Twins in 5. It's going to take a return trip to the Metrodome, but the Twinkies home record in 2006 (the best in baseball at 54-27) is no joke. Team defense and the sick relief pitching, anchored by Nathan, win it.
Tomorrow ... my NLDS picks.
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Is that sound you hear Jimmy Leyland screaming into a pillow at the fact his team: a) spit the bit down the stretch and lost the divisional title b) gave up HFA in the ALDS c) now has to play the hottest team in baseball or d) all of the above?
While it's true the Tigers did not do themselves any favors giving up the A's for the Yanks, the fact of the matter is the Tigers MADE THE PLAYOFFS. Take the gate revenue from the extra game(s) and run! But this team has a chance. First, they are the AL Wild Card, and if they can pull a 2004 Red Sox or a 2002 Angels, they'll be fine.
Matchup to Watch
This whole series comes down to pitching. While the Yankees on paper have a distinct advantage in the batting order now that Sheffield and Matsui are healthy to compliment, Jeter, Cano, Damon, and Giambi, they can't pitch their team to wins like the Tigers. The Tigers starters (and team overall) boasted the best team ERA in MLB, which helped TIGERS' starters post the most wins of any rotation (1 ahead of the Yankees) and is complimented by the 6th best batting average against in all of MLB (2nd best in the AL). Here's the matchups:
Starters
Game 1: Robertson vs. Wang
Game 2: Verlander vs. Mussina
Game 3: Rogers vs. Johnson
The fact that the Tigers worst starter of its top 3 is pitching the 1st game against, arguably, the Yankees best pitcher this year, may decide this whole series. If the Tigers steal Game 1, an inconsistent Mussina and an aged, aching Johnson give the Tigers potential for a sweep, let alone taking this series while in Detroit in Game 4 (if necessary).
My Pick: Yankees in 4. Detroit's 1st foray into the post season after such a long layoff just doesn't bode well for Leyland & Co. If they come back to make the post season again next year, I may change my mind.
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland A's
One thing can be said about all 4 teams in the ALDS, there is no shortage of pitching. The Yanks and Tigers may be good for the AARP (Johnson/Mussina) versus Cub Scouts (Verlander/Bonderman), but I'll stake my money on this series being the best pitching matchup in any of the 4 LDS matchups. IMAGINE what this would be like if Francisco Liriano could pitch? Instead, we're treated to #1 vs. #1 in Johan vs. Zito, and Bonzer vs. Loiaza, 2 guys who have been overlooked in the second half of the season as anchors to rotations that didn't have much after the #1's for a good strech post All-Star break. In the end though, the best pitching will come routinely after the 6th or 7th inning when both bullpens step in.
Matchup to watch
The closers. Which young closer shows he's got the stuff to be the next Mariano? The Twins' Joe Nathan has really be groomed for this spot in his career, while Huston Street of the A's is still that filthy raw and careless flame thrower who makes batters step back in the batter's box and extra 1/2 step. So which has more pressure? I say Nathan- he's been a top closer longer, his team has been to the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, but he's only 0-1 with 1 save and a 9.00 ERA, pitching 5 innings in relief for the Twins. Meanwhile, Huston Street hasn't been to the post-season and, in fact, is only in his second season, AND he's only 23 years old! Closing out the 9th inning, when the game is on the line in a deciding Game 5 is a lot to ask a 23 year old kid. Because of this, I say...
My Pick: Twins in 5. It's going to take a return trip to the Metrodome, but the Twinkies home record in 2006 (the best in baseball at 54-27) is no joke. Team defense and the sick relief pitching, anchored by Nathan, win it.
Tomorrow ... my NLDS picks.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
